Piano B

1. Brown L.R., The Twenty-Ninth Day, W.W. Norton & Company, New York 1978 (ed. Italiana: Il 29° giorno, Sansoni Editore, 1980).

2. U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), Production, Supply and Distribution, www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline (aggiornato al 9 aprile 2009); Wali M.K., et al., “Assessing Terrestrial Ecosystem Sustainability”, Nature & Resources, ottobre-dicembre 1999; World Resources Institute (WRI), World Resources 2000-01, Washington, 2000.

3. U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), ResourceSTAT, faostat.fao.org (aggiornato ad aprile 2009); Brown L.R., “Melting Mountain Glaciers Will Shrink Grain Harvests in China and India”, Plan B Update, Earth Policy Institute, Washington, 20 marzo 2008.

4. Kijne J.W., Unlocking the Water Potential of Agriculture, FAO, Roma 2003.
5. Brown L.R., Outgrowing the Earth, W.W. Norton & Company, New York 2004.

6. Lowdermilk W.C., “Conquest of the Land Through 7,000 Years”, USDA Bulletin N. 99, Natural Resources Conservation Service, Washington 1939.

7. Ibidem.

8. FAO, FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission to Lesotho Special Report, www.fao.org (visionato il 29 maggio 2002); U.N. Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision Population Database, https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/content/population-division; Grunwald M., “Bizarre Weather Ravages Africans’ Crops”, Washington Post, 7 gennaio 2003.

9. USDA, Production, Supply and Distribution, cit.; U.N. World Food Programme (WFP), “Lesotho”, www.wfp.org/countries/lesotho (visionato il 5 maggio 2009).

10. USDA, Production, Supply and Distribution, cit.; FAO, Global Forest Resources Assessment 2005, Roma 2006; WFP, “Haiti”, www.wfp.org/countries/haiti (visionato il 5 maggio 2009).

11. U.N. Environment Programme (UNEP), Mongolia: State of the Environment 2002, Regional Resource Centre for Asia and the Pacific, Pathumthani, Thailandia 2001; U.N. Population Division, World Population Prospects, cit.; USDA, Production, Supply and Distribution, cit.

12. FAO, “More People Than Ever are Victims of Hunger”, Roma, giugno 2009.

13. National Aeronautics and Space Administration Earth Observatory, “Dust Storm off Western Sahara Coast”, earthobservatory.nasa.gov (visionato il 9 gennaio 2005).

14. Brown P., “4x4s Replace the Desert Camel and Whip Up a Worldwide Dust Storm”, The Guardian, 20 agosto 2004.

15. Ibidem.

16. Schrader A., “Latest Import from China: Haze”, Denver Post, 18 aprile 2001; Brown P., “4x4s Replace the Desert Camel”, cit.

17. French H.W., “China’s Growing Deserts Are Suffocating Korea”, New York Times, 14 aprile 2002.

18. Brown L.R., Larsen J., Fischlowitz Roberts B., The Earth Policy Reader, W.W. Norton & Company, New York 2002.

19. U.S. Embassy, “Desert Mergers and Acquisitions”, Beijing Environment, Science, and Technology Update, Beijing 19 luglio 2002.

20. Farrukh A., Pakistan Grain and Feed Annual Report 2002, USDA Foreign Agricultural Service, Islamabad, Pakistan, 2003.

21. UNEP, Africa Environment Outlook: Past, Present, and Future Perspectives, Nairobi 2002.

22. Wood S., Sebastian K., Scherr S.J., Pilot Analysis of Global Ecosystems: Agroecosystems, International Food Policy Research Institute e WRI, Washington 2000; FAO, ProdSTAT, faostat.fao.org (aggiornato a giugno 2009).

23. FAO, The State of Food Insecurity in the World 2003, Roma 2003; White R.P., Murray S., Rohweder M., Pilot Analysis of Global Ecosystems: Grassland Ecosystems, WRI, Washington 2000; U.N. Population Division, World Population Prospects, cit.; FAO, ProdSTAT, cit.; Southern African Development Coordination Conference, SADCC Agriculture: Toward 2000, FAO, Roma 1984.

24. Government of Nigeria, Combating Desertification and Mitigating the Effects of Drought in Nigeria, Revised National Report on the Implementation of the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification, Nigeria, aprile 2002; U.N. Population Division, World Population Prospects, cit.; FAO, ProdSTAT, cit.
25. U.N. Population Division, World Population Prospects, cit.; FAO, ProdSTAT, cit.; Iranian News Agency, “Official Warns of Impending Desertification Catastrophe in Southeast Iran”, BBC International Reports, 29 settembre 2002.
26. UNEP, Afghanistan: Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment, Ginevra 2003.

27. FAO, ProdSTAT, cit.

28. Tao W., et al., “A Study on Spatial-temporal Changes of Sandy Desertified Land During Last 5 Decades in North China”, Acta Geographica Sinica, 2004, 59, 203-212.

29. Tao W., Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute (CAREERI), Chinese Academy of Sciences, e-mail all’autore, 4 aprile 2004; Tao W., “The Process and Its Control of Sandy Desertification in Northern China”, CAREERI, Chinese Academy of Sciences, seminario sulla desertificazione, Lanzhou, Cina, maggio 2002.

30. FAO, The State of Food and Agriculture 1995, Roma 1995; Naylor R., et al., “Losing the Links between Livestock and Land”, Science, 9 dicembre 2005, 310, 1621-1622.

31. “The Great North American Dust Bowl: A Cautionary Tale”, in Secretariat of the U.N. Convention to Combat Desertification, Global Alarm: Dust and Sandstorms from the World’s Drylands, Bangkok 2002; Steinbeck J., The Grapes of Wrath, Viking Penguin Inc., New York 1939 (prima edizione italiana: Furore, Bompiani, Milano 1940).

32. FAO, The State of Food and Agriculture 1995, cit.; D. Christian, Imperial and Soviet Russia: Power, Privilege, and the Challenge of Modernity, Palgrave Macmillan, New York 1997; USDA, Production, Supply and Distribution, cit.; France from USDA, Foreign Agricultural Service, World Agricultural Production, Washington, aprile 2009.

33. Kaimowitz D., et al., Hamburger Connection Fuels Amazon Destruction, Center for International Forestry Research, Jakarta, Indonesia, 2004; Spehar C.R., “Production Systems in the Savannahs of Brazil: Key Factors to Sustainability”, in Lal R., a cura di, Soil Quality and Agricultural Sustainability, Ann Arbor Press, Chelsea, 1998; Nepstad D., “Climate Change and the Forest”, Tomorrow’s Amazonia: Using and Abusing the World’s Last Great Forests, The American Prospect, Washington, settembre 2007); Lean G., “A Disaster to Take Everyone’s Breath Away”, The Independent, 24 luglio 2006.

34. Smith C.S., “Saudis Worry as They Waste Their Scarce Water”, New York Times, 26 gennaio 2003.

35. England A., “Saudis to Phase Out Wheat Production”, Financial Times, 10 aprile 2008; USDA, Production, Supply and Distribution, cit.; U.N. Population Division, World Population Prospects, cit.

36. Ma M., “Northern Cities Sinking as Water Table Falls”, South China Morning Post, 11 agosto 2001; Smith, “Saudis Worry as They Waste Their Scarce Water”, cit.; Opie J., Ogallala: Water for a Dry Land, 2^nd ed., University of Nebraska Press, Lincoln 2000.

37. U.N. Population Division, World Population Prospects, cit.; USDA, Production, Supply and Distribution, cit.; Ward C., “Yemen’s Water Crisis”, lezione del settembre 2000 alla British Yemeni Society, luglio 2001; Fund for Peace and Foreign Policy, “The Failed States Index”, Foreign Policy, luglio-agosto 2009, 80-93.

38. Ma M., “Northern Cities Sinking as Water Table Falls”, cit.; Yang H., Zehnder A., “China’s Regional Water Scarcity and Implications for Grain Supply and Trade”, Environment and Planning A, 2001, 33; National Bureau of Statistics of China, China Statistical Yearbook 2008, www.stats.gov.cn/sj/ndsj/2008/indexeh.htm (visionato 9 giugno 2009).

39. Ma M., “Northern Cities Sinking as Water Table Falls”, cit.

40. World Bank, China: Agenda for Water Sector Strategy for North China, aprile 2001, VII, XI, Washington; U.N. Population Division, World Population Prospects, cit.; USDA, Production, Supply and Distribution, cit.

41. Gleick P.H., et al., The World’s Water 2006-2007, Island Press, Washington 2006; Pearce F., “Asian Farmers Sucking the Continent Dry”, New Scientist, 28 agosto 2004.

42. Pearce F., “Asian Farmers Sucking the Continent Dry”, cit.

43. USDA, Production, Supply and Distribution, cit.; Briscoe J., India’s Water Economy: Bracing for a Turbulent Future, World Bank, New Delhi 2005; U.N. Population Division, World Population Prospects, cit.

44. USDA, Agricultural Resources and Environmental Indicators 2000, febbraio 2000, 2.1, 6; FAO, ResourceSTAT, cit.; USDA, Production, Supply and Distribution, cit.; Postel S., Pillar of Sand, W.W. Norton & Company, New York 1999.

45. U.N. Population Division, World Population Prospects, cit.; “Pakistan: Focus on Water Crisis”, U.N. Integrated Regional Information Networks News, 17 maggio 2002.

46. “Pakistan: Focus on Water Crisis”, cit.; Khan A.R., “Declining Land Resource Base”, Dawn, Pakistan, 27 settembre 2004.

47. Chenaran Agricultural Center, Ministero dell’agricoltura, secondo Hamid Taravati, Iran, e-mail all’autore, 25 giugno 2002; USDA, Production, Supply and Distribution, cit.

48. Camiel D., “Israel, Palestinian Water Resources Down the Drain”, Reuters, 12 luglio 2000; USDA, Production, Supply and Distribution, cit.; “Palestinian Water Crisis Deepens”, BBC News, 20 aprile 2009.

49. U.N. Population Division, World Population Prospects, cit.; Shah T., et al., The Global Groundwater Situation: Overview of Opportunities and Challenges, International Water Management Institute, Colombo, Sri Lanka, 2000; Kemper K., “Groundwater Management in Mexico: Legal and Institutional Issues”, in S.M.A. Salman, a cura di, Groundwater: Legal and Policy Perspectives, Proceedings of a World Bank Seminar, World Bank, Washington 1999; U.N. Development Programme, Human Development Report 2006, Palgrave Macmillan, Gordonsville 2006).

50. Postel S., Last Oasis, W.W. Norton & Company, New York 1997; FAO, Yield Response to Water, Roma 1979.

51. Gollehon N., Quinby W., “Irrigation in the American West: Area, Water and Economic Activity”, Water Resources Development, 2000, 16, 2, 187-195; Postel S., Last Oasis, cit.; Mitra P., “Running on Empty: India’s Water Crisis Could Threaten Prosperity”, South Asia Monitor, Center for Strategic and International Studies, Washington, 8 febbraio 2007, 103; Srinivasan R., “The Politics of Water”, Info Change Agenda, 3, ottobre 2005; U.N. Population Division, World Urbanization Prospects: The 2007 Revision Population Database, https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/sites/www.un.org.development.desa.pd/files/unpd_egm_200801_presentation_heilig.pdf

52. Srinivasan, “The Politics of Water”, cit.; Pearce, “Asian Farmers Sucking the Continent Dry”, cit.

53. “China Politics: Growing Tensions Over Scarce Water”, The Economist, 21 giugno 2004.

54. Gollehon N., Quinby W., “Irrigation in the American West”, cit.
55. Bunch J., “Water Projects Forecast to Fall Short of Needs: Study Predicts 10% Deficit in State”, Denver Post, 22 luglio 2004.

56. Murphy D., “Pact in West Will Send Farms’ Water to Cities”, New York Times, 17 ottobre 2003; Molloy T., “California Water District Approves Plan to Pay Farmers for Irrigation Water”, Associated Press, 13 maggio 2004; USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), “Table 10. Irrigation 2002 and 1997”, 2002 Census of Agriculture, giugno 2004, 1, 318-326, Washington; USDA, NASS, “Table 10. Irrigation: 2007 and 2002”, 2007 Census of Agriculture, febbraio 2009, 1, 372-380, Washington.
57. FAO, Yield Response to Water, cit.

58. USDA, Foreign Agricultural Service, Grain: World Markets and Trade, Washington, varie annualità; USDA, Production, Supply and Distribution, cit.

59. Postel S., Pillar of Sand, cit.; USDA, Production, Supply and Distribution, cit.; FAO, Yield Response to Water, cit.

60. U.N. Population Division, World Population Prospects, cit.; USDA, Production, Supply and Distribution, cit.
61. USDA, Production, Supply and Distribution Country Reports, Washington, ottobre 1990; USDA, Production, Supply and Distribution, cit.; U.N. Population Division, World Population Prospects, cit.
62. “Time for Action on Sudan”, New York Times, 18 giugno 2004; “A First Step to Save Darfur”, New York Times, 3 agosto 2007; “Hearings to Identify Causes of Conflict Kick Off in Darfur, Reports UNAU Mission”, UN News Service, 22 giugno 2009.

63. U.N. Population Division, World Population Prospects, cit.; FAO, ProdSTAT, cit.

64. U.N. Population Division, World Population Prospects, cit.; Government of Nigeria, Combating Desertification and Mitigating the Effects of Drought in Nigeria, National Report on the Implementation of the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification, Nigeria, novembre 1999; Sengupta S., “Where the Land is a Tinderbox, the Killing Is a Frenzy”, New York Times, 16 giugno 2004.

65. Sengupta, “Where the Land is a Tinderbox, the Killing Is a Frenzy”, cit.

66. Ibidem

67. Gasana J., “Remember Rwanda?”, World Watch, settembre-ottobre 2002, 24-32.

68. Ibidem

69. U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, International Programs Center, International Database, https://www.census.gov/population/international/ e, per il Ruanda, https://www.census.gov/library/visualizations/time-series/demo/demobase-rwanda.html; Gasana, “Remember Rwanda?”, cit.

70. Gasana, “Remember Rwanda?”, cit.; Wax E., “At the Heart of Rwanda’s Horror: General’s History Offers Clues to the Roots of Genocide”, Washington Post, 21 settembre 2002.

71. U.N. Population Division, World Population Prospects, cit.; Gasana, “Remember Rwanda?”, cit.

72. U.N. Population Division, World Population Prospects, cit.; Postel S., Pillar of Sand, cit.
73. U.N. Population Division, World Population Prospects, cit.; Postel S., Postel S., Pillar of Sand, cit.
74. U.N. Population Division, World Population Prospects, cit.; Postel S., Postel S., Pillar of Sand, cit.; Southeastern Anatolia Project Regional Development Administration, Latest Situation on Southeastern Anatolia Project, Republic of Turkey, Prime Ministry, Ankara, giugno 2006.

75. O’Hara S. in Michael Wines, “Grand Soviet Scheme for Sharing Water in Central Asia is Foundering”, New York Times, 9 dicembre 2002; Stanchin I., Lerman Z., Water in Turkmenistan, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Rehovot, Israel 2007).

76. Licht F.O., “Too Much Too Soon? World Ethanol Production to Break Another Record in 2005”, World Ethanol and Biofuels Report, 21 giugno 2005, 3, 20, 429-435; U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), “World Crude Oil Prices”, https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/global_oil.php e “U.S. All Grades All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices”, https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/; USDA, Production, Supply and Distribution, cit.; USDA, Feedgrains Database, www.ers.usda.gov/Data/feedgrains (aggiornato al 19 maggio 2009).

77. Licht F.O., “World Fuel Ethanol Production”, World Ethanol and Biofuels Report, 26 maggio 2009, 7, 18, 365; “Biodiesel: World Production, by Country”, in Licht F.O., “World Ethanol and Biofuels Report”, cit.; “EU Ministers Agree Biofuel Target”, BBC News, 15 febbraio 2007.

78. USDA, Production, Supply and Distribution, Feedgrains Database, cit.; USDA, Feedgrains Database, cit.; Chicago Board of Trade Futures Data, da TFC Commodity Charts, “Grain & Oilseed Commodities Futures”, futures.tradingcharts.com/grains_oilseeds.html (visionato il 16 gennaio 2009); Chicago Board of Trade Futures Data, da CME Group, “Commodity Products”, www.cmegroup.com; Childs N., Baldwin K., Rice Outlook, USDA, Economic Research Service, Washington, 11 giugno 2009; Mitchell D., A Note on Rising Food Prices, Policy Research Working Paper 4682, World Bank Development Prospects Group, Washington, luglio 2008, 16-17.

79. Brown L.R., “Distillery Demand for Grain to Fuel Cars Vastly Understated: World May Be Facing Highest Grain Prices in History”, Eco-Economy Update, Earth Policy Institute, Washington, 4 gennaio 2007; Collins K. (capo economista USDA), Statement before the U.S. Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works, 6 settembre 2006; Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), “Bioenergy Conversion Factors”, https://content.ces.ncsu.edu/conversion-factors-for-bioenergy; “Table 10. Energy Consumption by Sector and Source: Total United States”, in DOE, Energy Information Administration, “Supplemental Tables to the Annual Energy Outlook 2009”, https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/tables_ref.php; USDA, Production, Supply and Distribution, cit.

80. Ford Runge C., Senauer B., “How Biofuels Could Starve the Poor”, Foreign Affairs, maggio-giugno 2007.

81. Dugger C.W., “As Prices Soar, U.S. Food Aid Buys Less”, New York Times, 29 settembre 2007; WFP, “Our Work: Operations List”, www.wfp.org/operations/list (visionato il 9 giugno 2009); Lederer E.M., “U.N.: Hunger Kills 18,000 Kids Each Day”, Associated Press, 17 febbraio 2007.

82. Ward’s Automotive Group, World Motor Vehicle Data 2008, Southfield 2008, 239-242; “Gross National Income Per Capita 2007, Atlas Method and PPP”, in World Bank, Data - Quick Reference Tables, www.worldbank.org, e in U.N. Population Division, World Population Prospects, cit.
83. Barta P., “Jatropha Plant Gains Steam in Global Race for Biofuels”, Wall Street Journal, 24 agosto 2007; “Shell Boosts Stake in Iogen Cellulosic Ethanol”, Reuters, 15 luglio 2008; FAO, State of Food and Agriculture 2008, Roma 2008.

84. The White House, “Remarks by the President on National Fuel Efficiency Standards”, Office of the Press Secretary, Washington, 19 maggio 2009; Broder J.M., “Obama to Toughen Rules on Emissions and Mileage”, New York Times, 19 maggio 2009; Collins, Statement before the U.S. Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works, cit.; Oak Ridge National Laboratory, “Bioenergy Conversion Factors”, cit.; “Table 10. Energy Consumption by Sector and Source: Total United States”, cit.; USDA, Production, Supply and Distribution, cit.; CalCars, “All About Plug-In Hybrids”, www.calcars.org (visionato il 9 giugno 2009).

85. USDA, Production, Supply and Distribution, cit.; Licht F.O., “World Fuel Ethanol Production”, cit.

86. “Scientists Meeting in Tunis Called for Priority Activities to Curb Desertification”, UN News Service, 21 giugno 2006.

87. Cowell A., “Migrants Found off Italy Boat Piled with Dead”, International Herald Tribune, 21 ottobre 2003.

88. Ibidem

89. Russo R., “UNHCR Steps up Efforts to Stem Gulf of Aden Crossings As Numbers Mount”, News Stories, U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), Ginevra, 22 maggio 2009; Caux H., Spindler W., “Dozens Dead or Missing in Gulf of Aden; Boat People Figures Rise”, News Stories, UNHCR, Ginevra, 4 novembre 2008.

90. Leitsinger M., “African Migrants Die an Ocean Away”, Washington Post, 2 giugno 2006; Roman M., “A New Record for Africans Risking Boat Route to Europe”, Washington Post, 4 settembre 2006.

91. Thompson G., “Mexico Worries About Its Own Southern Border”, New York Times, 18 giugno 2006; Instituto Nacional de Migración, Estadísticas Migratorias, www.gob.mx/inm (aggiornato al 30 aprile 2009).

92. “Mexico’s Immigration Problem: The Kamikazes of Poverty”, The Economist, 31 gennaio 2004.

93. Bruni F., “Off Sicily, Tide of Bodies Roils Immigrant Debate”, New York Times, 23 settembre 2002; Botsford F., “Spain Recovers Drowned Migrants”, BBC News, 25 aprile 2002; “Boat Sinks Off Coast of Turkey: One Survivor and 7 Bodies Found”, Agence France-Presse, 22 dicembre 2003; Jordan M., Sullivan K., “Trade Brings Riches, But Not to Mexico’s Poor”, Washington Post, 22 marzo 2003; McLeman R., Smit B., “Climate Change, Migration and Security”, Commentary N. 86, Canadian Security Intelligence Service, Ottawa, 2 marzo 2004; FAO, PopSTAT, https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/OA; Coalición de Derechos Humanos, “Arizona Recovered Bodies”, www.derechoshumanosaz.net (aggiornato al 15 giugno 2009).

94. Shah T., et al., The Global Groundwater Situation, cit.; U.N. Population Division, World Population Prospects, cit.

95. Tao W., e-mail all’autore, cit.; Tao W., “The Process and Its Control of Sandy Desertification in Northern China”, cit.

96. Karam S., “Drought-Hit North Africa Seen Hunting for Grains”, Reuters, 15 luglio 2005; African Development Bank and Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, African Economic Outlook 2007, Tunisi e Parigi 2007.

97. Iranian News Agency, “Official Warns of Impending Desertification Catastrophe in Southeast Iran”, cit.; Government of Nigeria, Combating Desertification and Mitigating the Effects of Drought in Nigeria, cit.

98. Matallo H., “General Approach to the Costs of Desertification”, presentazione all’International Workshop on the Cost of Inaction and Opportunities for Investment in Arid, Semi-Arid and Dry Sub-Humid Areas, Roma, 4-5 dicembre 2006; Tabella 5.2 in Brown, Outgrowing the Earth, cit.

99. McGranahan G., Balk D., Anderson B., “The Rising Tide: Assessing the Risks of Climate Change and Human Settlements in Low Elevation Coastal Zones”, Environment and Urbanization, aprile 2007, 18, 1, 17-37; International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED), “Climate Change: Study Maps Those at Greatest Risk from Cyclones and Rising Seas”, comunicato stampa, Londra, 28 marzo 2007.