Piano B

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2. IPCC, Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis, cit.; U.N. Environment Programme (UNEP), Global Outlook for Ice and Snow, Nairobi 2007; Pfeffer W.T., Harper J.T., O’Neel S., “Kinematic Constraints on Glacier Contributions to 21^st-Century Sea-Level Rise”, Science, 5 settembre 2008, 321, 1340-1343; “Sea Levels Will Rise 1.5 Metres by 2100”, NewScientist.com, 16 aprile 2008; Rahmstorf S., “A Semi-Empirical Approach to Projecting Future Sea-level Rise”, Science, 19 gennaio 2007, 315, 368-370. 

3. IPCC, Climate Change 2007: Impact, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge UK 2007. 

4. International Energy Agency (IEA), Oil Market Report, Parigi, agosto 2001 (include il petrolio e il gas naturale liquido); U.S. Department of Defense, Twentieth Century Petroleum Statistics, Washington 1945, citato in Flavin C., Dunn S., “Reinventing the Energy System”, in Brown L.R., Flavin C., French H., State of the World 1999, W.W. Norton & Company, New York 1999; Dunn S., “Coal Use Continues Rebound”, in Brown L.R., et al., Vital Signs 1998, W.W. Norton & Company, New York 1998. 

5. IEA, Oil Market Report, Parigi, giugno 2009; Campbell C.J., e-mail a Jignasha Rana, Earth Policy Institute, 18 giugno 2009. 

6. IEA, World Energy Outlook 2008, Parigi 2008. 

7. Hansen, “Global Temperature Anomalies in 0.1 C”, cit. 

8. IPCC, Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis, cit.

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10. Simpson S., “The Arctic Thaw Could Make Global Warming Worse”, Scientific American: Earth 3.0, giugno 2009; Global Carbon Project, “Supersize Deposits of Frozen Carbon Threat to Climate Change”, comunicato stampa, Canberra, Australia, 1° luglio 2009. 

11. Ramanathan V., et al., Atmospheric Brown Clouds: Regional Assessment Report with Focus on Asia, UNEP, Nairobi 2008. 

12. Ibidem; Qian Y., et al., “Effects of Soot-Induced Snow Albedo Change on Snowpack and Hydrological Cycle in Western United States Based on Weather Research and Forecasting Chemistry and Regional Climate Simulations”, Journal of Geophysical Research, 14 febbraio 2009, 114, D3; Qiu J., “The Third Pole”, Nature, 24 luglio 2008, 454, 393-396; Moore F.C., “Climate Change and Air Pollution: Exploring the Synergies and Potential for Mitigation in Industrializing Countries”, Sustainability, 24 marzo 2009, 1, 1, 43-54. 

13. Rosenthal E., “Third-World Soot Stove is Target in Climate Fight”, New York Times, 16 aprile 2009. 

14. IPCC, Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis, cit.; Karl T.R., Melillo J.M., Peterson T.C., Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States, Cambridge University Press, New York 2009. 

15. Sokolov A.P., et al., “Probabilistic Forecast for 21^st Century Climate Based on Uncertainties in Emissions (Without Policy) and Climate Parameters”, Journal of Climate, 1° ottobre 2009, 22, 19, 5175-5204. 

16. International Alliance of Research Universities, Climate Change: Global Risks, Challenges & Decisions, Synthesis Report, International Scientific Congress, University of Copenaghen, Copenaghen 2009. 

17. “Awful Weather We’re Having”, The Economist, 2 ottobre 2004; Milne R., “Hurricanes Cost Munich Re Reinsurance”, Financial Times, 6 novembre 2004. 

18. U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), Production, Supply and Distribution, www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline (aggiornato all’11 giugno 2007); Larsen J., “Record Heat Wave in Europe Takes 35,000 Lives”, Eco-Economy Update, Earth Policy Institute, Washington, 9 ottobre 2003; USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service, “Crop Production”, Washington, 12 agosto 2005. 

19. Larsen J., “Setting the Record Straight: More than 52,000 Europeans Died from Heat in Summer 2003”, Eco-Economy Update, Earth Policy Institute, Washington, 26 luglio 2006; National Commission on Terrorist Attacks Upon the United States, The 9/11 Commission Report, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington 2004. 

20. National Center for Atmospheric Research and UCAR Office of Programs, “Drought’s Growing Reach: NCAR Study Points to Global Warming as Key Factor”, comunicato stampa, Boulder, 10 gennaio 2005; Dai A., Trenberth K.E., Qian T., “A Global Dataset of Palmer Drought Severity Index for 1870-2002: Relationship with Soil Moisture and Effects of Surface Warming”, Journal of Hydrometeorology, dicembre 2004, 5, 1117-1130. 

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23. Parmesan C., Galbraith H., Observed Impacts of Global Climate Change in the U.S., Pew Center on Global Climate Change, Arlington 2004; Brown D.L., “Signs of Thaw in a Desert of Snow”, Washington Post, 28 maggio 2002. 

24. Glick P., Fish Out of Water: A Guide to Global Warming and Pacific Northwest Rivers, National Wildlife Federation, Seattle, marzo 2005; Gillespie E., “Global Warming May Be Making Rivers Too Hot: Cold-Water Fish Will Struggle, Report Says”, Seattle Post-Intelligencer, 24 marzo 2005. 

25. Inkley D.B., et al., Global Climate Change and Wildlife in North America, The Wildlife Society, Bethesda, dicembre 2004; Pegg J.R., “Global Warming Disrupting North American Wildlife”, Environment News Service, 16 dicembre 2004. 

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29. ACIA, Impacts of a Warming Arctic, cit.; Amstrup S.C., Marcot B.G., Douglas D.C., Forecasting the Range-wide Status of Polar Bears at Selected Times in the 21^st Century, U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), Reston 2007. 

30. Stroeve J., et al., “Arctic Sea Ice Decline: Faster than Forecast”, Geophysical Research Letters, maggio 2007, 34; National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC), “Arctic Sea Ice Shatters All Previous Record Lows”, comunicato stampa, Boulder, 1° ottobre 2007; Kwok R., et al., “Thinning and Volume Loss of the Arctic Ocean Sea Ice Cover: 2003-2008”, Journal of Geophysical Research, 7 luglio 2009, 114.

31. Adam D., “Meltdown Fear as Arctic Ice Cover Falls to Record Winter Low”, The Guardian, 15 maggio 2006; Rollason K., “Arctic to See First Ice-Free Summer in 2015”, Canwest News Service, Canada, 6 dicembre 2008; Vincent W. in Ljunggren D., “Arctic Summer Ice Could Vanish by 2013: Expert”, Reuters, 5 marzo 2009; Stroeve J. in “Arctic Ice Retreating 30 Years Ahead of Projections”, Environment News Service, 30 aprile 2007. 

32. NSIDC, “Processes: Thermodynamics: Albedo”, https://nsidc.org/home

33. UNEP, Global Outlook for Ice and Snow, cit. 

34. Chen J.L., Wilson C.R., Tapley B.D., “Satellite Gravity Measurements Confirm Accelerated Melting of Greenland Ice Sheet”, Science, 29 settembre 2006, 313, 1958-1960; Velicogna I., Wahr J., “Acceleration of Greenland Ice Mass Loss in Spring 2004”, Nature, 21 settembre 2006, 443, 329-331; Luthke S.B., et al., “Recent Greenland Ice Mass Loss from Drainage System from Satellite Gravity Observations”, Science, 24 novembre 2006, 314, 1286-1289; “Gravity Measurements Confirm Greenland’s Glaciers Precipitous Meltdown”, Scientific American, 19 ottobre 2006. 

35. Brown P., “Melting Ice Cap Triggering Earthquakes”, The Guardian, 8 settembre 2007; Corell R.W., conversazione con Rana J., Earth Policy Institute, 15 luglio 2009. 

36. Ohio State University, “Greenland’s Glaciers Losing Ice Faster This Year than Last Year, Which Was Record-Setting Itself”, ScienceDaily, 16 dicembre 2008. 

37. Jay Zwally H., et al., “Surface Melt-Induced Acceleration of Greenland Ice-Sheet Flow”, Science, 12 luglio 2002, 297, 218-222. 

38. U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Energy Information Administration (EIA), “Antarctica: Fact Sheet”, www.eia.gov, settembre 2000. 

39. “Giant Antarctic Ice Shelves Shatter and Break Away”, Environment News Service, 19 marzo 2002; Vaughan D. in Revkin A., “Large Ice Shelf in Antarctica Disintegrates at Great Speed”, New York Times, 20 marzo 2002. 

40. “Breakaway Bergs Disrupt Antarctic Ecosystem”, Environment News Service, 9 maggio 2002; “Giant Antarctic Ice Shelves Shatter and Break Away”, cit. 

41. NSIDC, “Larsen B Ice Shelf Collapses in Antarctica”, https://nsidc.org/news-analyses/news-stories/antarctic-ice-shelf-collapses-largest-event-last-30-years, 21 marzo 2002; “Breakaway Bergs Disrupt Antarctic Ecosystem”, cit.; “Giant Antarctic Ice Shelves Shatter and Break Away”, cit. 

42. University of Colorado at Boulder, “NASA, CU-Boulder Study Shows Vast Regions of West Antarctica Melted in Recent Past”, comunicato stampa, Boulder, 15 maggio 2007. 

43. Brown P., “NASA Satellites Watch Polar Ice Shelf Break into Crushed Ice”, Scientific American, luglio 2008. 

44. NASA Earth Observatory, “Wilkins Ice Bridge Collapse”, earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=37806 (postato l’8 aprile 2009). 

45. Byrnes M., “New Antarctic Iceberg Split No Threat”, Reuters, 20 maggio 2002. 

46. McKie R., “Scientists to Issue Stark Warning Over Dramatic New Sea Level Figures”, The Guardian, 8 marzo 2009; IPCC, Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis, cit.; Pfeffer W.T., Harper J.T., O’Neel S., “Kinematic Constraints on Glacier Contributions to 21^st Century Sea-Level Rise”, cit.; USGS, Synthesis and Assessment Product 3.4: Abrupt Climate Change, Washington 2009. 

47. McGranahan, et al., “The Rising Tide”, cit. 

48. Ibidem 

49. World Glacier Monitoring Service, Università di Zurigo, https://wgms.ch/downloads/wgms_2009_gmbb10.pdf (aggiornato al 30 gennaio 2009). 

50. Brown L.R., “Melting Mountain Glaciers Will Shrink Grain Harvests in China and India”, Plan B Update, Earth Policy Institute, Washington, 20 marzo 2008. 

51. USDA, Production, Supply and Distribution, cit.

52. IPCC, Climate Change 2007: Impact, Adaptation and Vulnerability, cit.; Wax E., “A Sacred River Endangered by Global Warming”, Washington Post, 17 giugno 2007. 

53. Coonan C, “China’s Water Supply Could be Cut Off as Tibet’s Glaciers Melt”, The Independent, 31 maggio 2007; UNEP, Global Outlook for Ice and Snow, cit.; “Yangtze River-Agriculture”, Encyclopaedia Britannica, online (visionato il 25 luglio 2007). 

54. Qiu, “The Third Pole”, cit.

55. UNEP, Global Outlook for Ice and Snow, cit.; Khalili M., “The Climate of Iran: North, South, Kavir (Desert), Mountains”, San’ate Hamlo Naql, marzo 1997. 

56. Thompson L., “Disappearing Glaciers Evidence of a Rapidly Changing Earth”, American Association for the Advancement of Science Annual Meeting, San Francisco, febbraio 2001; Thompson L., “Receding Glaciers Erase Records of Climate History”, Science News, 14 febbraio 2009; “The Peak of Mt Kilimanjaro As It Has Not Been Seen for 11,000 Years”, The Guardian, 14 marzo 2005; Wangui B., “Crisis Looms as Rivers Around Mt. Kenya Dry Up”, East Africa Standard, 1° luglio 2007. 

57. Hansen E., “Hot Peaks”, OnEarth, 2002.

58. Josephus L., “Global Warming Threatens Double-Trouble for Peru: Shrinking Glaciers and a Water Shortage”, Associated Press, 12 febbraio 2007; World Atlas, Hammond World Atlas Corporation, Union 2004; Thompson L., “Receding Glaciers”, cit. 

59. Josephus L., “Global Warming Threatens Double-Trouble for Peru”, cit.; U.N. Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision Population Database, https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/content/population-division

60. U.N. Population Division, Urban Agglomerations 2007 Wall Chart, https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/content/population-division; Painter J., “Peru’s Alarming Water Truth”, BBC News, 12 marzo 2007. 

61. Tremlett G., “Climate Change Lays Waste to Spain’s Glaciers”, The Guardian, 23 febbraio 2009. 

62. Minard A., “No More Glaciers in Glacier National Park by 2020?”, National Geographic News, 2 marzo 2009. 

63. Kiparsky M., Gleick P., Climate Change and California Water Resources: A Survey and Summary of the Literature, Pacific Institute, Oakland; Cavagnaro T., et al., Climate Change: Challenges and Solutions for California Agricultural Landscapes, California Climate Change Center, Sacramento 2006. 

64. Scott M.J., et al., “Climate Change and Adaptation in Irrigated Agriculture – A Case Study of the Yakima River”, in UCOWR/NIWR Conference, Water Allocation: Economics and the Environment, Universities Council on Water Resources, Carbondale 2004; Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, “Global Warming to Squeeze Western Mountains Dry by 2050”, comunicato stampa, Richland, 16 febbraio 2004. 

65. Sheehy J.E., International Rice Research Institute, e-mail a Janet Larsen, Earth Policy Institute, 1° ottobre 2002; Sanchez P., “The Climate Change-Soil Fertility-Food Security Nexus”, discorso, Sustainable Food Security for All by 2020, Bonn, Germania, 4-6 settembre 2002. 

66. Kavi Kumar K.S., Parikh J., “Socio-Economic Impacts of Climate Change on Indian Agriculture”, International Review for Environmental Strategies, 2001, 2, 2, 277-293; U.N. Population Division, World Population Prospects, cit. 

67. Wali M.K., et al., “Assessing Terrestrial Ecosystem Sustainability”, Nature & Resources, ottobre-dicembre 1999, 21-33. 

68. Shaobing P., et al., “Rice Yields Decline with Higher Night Temperature from Global Warming”, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 6 luglio 2004, 9971-9975; Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, “Warmer Evening Temperatures Lower Rice Yields”, comunicato stampa, Washington, 29 giugno 2004. 

69. Sheehy, e-mail a Janet Larsen, cit.; Sanchez, “The Climate Change-Soil Fertility-Food Security Nexus”, cit. 

70. Barnett T.P., et al., “Human-Induced Changes in the Hydrology of the Western United States”, Science, 22 febbraio 2008, 319; Shanahan T. M., et al., “Atlantic Forcing of Persistent Drought in West Africa”, Science, 17 aprile 2009, 324; Burke M.B., Lobell D.B., Guarino L., “Shifts in African Crop Climates by 2050, and the Implications for Crop Improvement and Genetic Resources Conservation”, Global Environmental Change, agosto 2009, 19, 3, 317-325. 

71. U.N. Population Division, World Population Prospects, cit.; Burke M.B., Lobell D.B., Guarino L., “Shifts in African Crop Climates by 2050”, cit.; Hood M., “Warming May Outstrip Africa’s Ability to Feed Itself: Study”, Agence France-Presse, 17 giugno 2009. 

72. IEA, World Energy Outlook 2008, cit.; DOE, EIA, “How Dependent Are We on Foreign Oil?”, www.eia.gov; U.S. Bureau of the Census, “Most of Us Still Drive to Work Alone – Public Transportation Commuters Concentrated in a Handful of Large Cities”, comunicato stampa, Washington, 13 giugno 2007; Whoriskey P., “GM to Build Small Car in U.S.”, Washington Post, 29 maggio 2009. 

73. Rascoe A., “U.S. Oil Demand in 2008 Hit a 10-year Low: Government”, Reuters, 27 febbraio 2009; DOE, EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, Washington, 7 luglio 2009; Rascoe A., “U.S. Public Transit 2008 Ridership Highest in 52 years”, Reuters, 9 marzo 2009. 

74. Campbell, e-mail a Jignasha Rana, cit.; Klare M.T., “Entering the Tough Oil Era”, TomDispatch.com, 16 agosto 2007. 

75. Klare M.T., “The Energy Crunch to Come”, TomDispatch.com, 22 marzo 2005; Mouawad J., “Big Oil’s Burden of Too Much Cash”, New York Times, 12 febbraio 2005; Williams M., “The End of Oil?” Technology Review, febbraio 2005; Vidal J., “The End of Oil Is Closer Than You Think”, The Guardian, 21 aprile 2005. 

76. Picerno J., “If We Really Have the Oil”, Bloomberg Wealth Manager, settembre 2002; Klare, “The Energy Crunch to Come”, cit.; Duncan R.C., Youngquist W., “Encircling the Peak of World Oil Production”, Natural Resource Research, dicembre 2003, 12, 4, 222; Youngquist W., GeoDestinies: The Inevitable Control of Earth Resources over Nations and Individuals, National Book Company, Portland 1997; Samsam Bakhtiari A.M., “World Oil Production Capacity Model Suggests Output Peak by 2006-07”, Oil and Gas Journal, 26 aprile 2004. 

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78. Chazan G., King N. Jr., “Russian Oil Slump Stirs Supply Jitters”, Wall Street Journal, 15 aprile 2008; IEA, Oil Market Report, Parigi, maggio 2009. 

79. Vidal, J., “The End of Oil Is Closer Than You Think”, cit. 

80. Chakrabarty G., “Shale’s New Hope”, Rocky Mountain News, 18 ottobre 2004; Youngquist W., “Alternative Energy Sources”, in Gerhard L.C., Leahy P., Yannacone V., a cura di, Sustainability of Energy and Water through the 21^st Century, Proceedings of the Arbor Day Farm Conference, 8-11 ottobre 2000, Kansas Geological Survey, Lawrence 2002. 

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82. McNulty S., “Tar Sands Refinery Projects Face a Sticky Future”, Financial Times, 5 gennaio 2009; Collier, “Canadian Oil Sands”, cit.; Cavallo A.J., “Oil: Caveat Empty”, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, maggio-giugno 2005, 61, 3, 16-18; Heinberg R., “The End of the Oil Age”, Earth Island Journal, 2003, 18, 3. 

83. IEA, World Energy Outlook 2008, cit.

84. World Health Organization, “Air Pollution”, Fact Sheet 187, Ginevra (aggiornato a settembre 2000); Larsen J., “Coal Takes Heavy Human Toll: Some 25,100 U.S. Deaths from Coal Use Largely Preventable”, Eco-Economy Update, Earth Policy Institute, Washington, 24 agosto 2004. 

85. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Science and Technology, “National Listing of Fish Advisories: 2005-06 National Listing”, bollettino di informazione, Washington, luglio 2007. 

86. Watts J., “Beijing Blames Pollutants for Rise in Killer Cancers”, The Guardian, 22 maggio 2007. 

87. Demick B., “China Blames Pollution for Surge in Birth Defects”, Los Angeles Times, 2 febbraio 2009; Mufson S., “Asian Nations Could Outpace U.S. in Developing Clean Energy”, Washington Post, 16 luglio 2009. 

88. Bradsher K., “Green Power Takes Root in the Chinese Desert”, New York Times, 2 luglio 2009. 

89. IEA, World Energy Outlook 2008, cit.

90. Hawken P., discorso all’inaugurazione dell’anno accademico 2009, University of Portland, Portland, 3 maggio 2009.